Showing posts with label otpions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label otpions. Show all posts

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Do you know the secret to stock options?

The stock market has been on a crazy ride recently. First it was 10% down, then in two days made its biggest advance in five years. It can make one dizzier than an astronaut on a daily commute to space.

Some folks don't want the actual ride; they only want to benefit if the market - or a particular stock - reaches and passes a certain price. They pay for the option to buy or sell at a particular price within a certain amount of time.

The Black-Scholes formula revolutionized the pricing of options. First published in 1973, it is now widely used on Wall Street. But it has its limitations: assumptions include no transaction costs, risk-free lending, no dividends, and measuring volatility as a constant.

Alas these assumptions mean that Black-Scholes is at best an approximation to reality. And its misapplication may not only spell disaster for investors. With the current situation in sub-prime mortgage debt and real estate devaluation, maybe a better name might be black holes.